The future of mobile

Ilga Laurs is the founder and CEO of GetJar, multi-platform application of the idea behind Apple’s strong retail number of downloads. Laurs run from offices in the United Kingdom GetJar, Silicon Valley, and his native Lithuania. I said he had recently where he saw an opportunity in the future of mobile applications.

VentureBeat’s: In an interview with British Broadcasting Corporation earlier this year in an interview, you say, mobile applications will become as big as the Internet. “Do you need to enter the mobile platform for this stage of a default, similar to Web browsers and HTML,” occur? How do you view your forecast to pass?

Ilga Laurs: the application always will be a part of the Internet, some can not be greater than the whole. I believe that if you measure the time spent on Internet use mind share, or income, mobile applications Sony VGP-BPS9, VGP-BPS9/B, VGP-BPS9/S , VGP-BPS9A, VGP-BPS9A/B will be even greater, but from the desktop Internet inseparable. Of course, it is necessary to establish a uniform standard, otherwise it is really difficult to establish any large-scale services. Recalling the Internet back to how long the Internet has been formed to take it now. I think ten years is a very realistic assumption. But ultimately, the size of mobile applications over the Internet today.

I would like to note that the study: We do not have more than 10,000 consumers a few months ago, one of the problems in the extensive investigation is to understand how much time they are moving compared to how much time is spent on the internet on the desktop. 70 percent said they spend more time actively working with their mobile phones, doing status updates, play games, and in other ways to use mobile applications over the Internet to do on the desktop. This is already the case today.

VB: this is a survey of smartphone users?

IL: This is the GetJar consumer surveys. Currently, 35% of consumers GetJar have smart phones and 65% of people have mobile phone feature. Feature phone user is very active. Application of the entry threshold to start using a much more feature phones is difficult, but once you know how to download and use applications that moment, you are for your iPhone, and other consumption levels.

The problem is not really concerned about feature phones and smart phones. The question is how to get started. Usually your iPhone or a BlackBerry user is an unlimited data plan, usually do not have the new features of mobile phones. In most cases, it is very difficult to configure the phone, so barriers to entry is to apply methods more difficult. But once you go there, it is the same.

VB: you do not think the data plan for the development as well as the demonstration, such as today’s broadband network?

IL: Of course. You know, in today’s data plan the biggest problem is, the cost is very unclear to consumers. I have never met a truly unlimited plan, and in most cases, especially in Europe, the price is not at all clear to consumers. You do not have any clue, your phone bill will look like. I do not think consumers have developed a sense of how much time, how much money they need, they will have to pay for services. Similarly, if it is a trillion bytes, or in the unlimited plan, even though, if you can not more than three Gigabit consumption - what this means. What is the Consumer Gigabyte? How many e-mail the number of hits, how many songs?

VB: it is similar to where you are charged per minute for Internet access initially.

IL: You are absolutely correct, the only exception, if you measured the minutes, you have some sense of how long you spend. Your time feeling is that built-in, but you do not have built-in “data sense.” I think, move it even more difficult. Unless the consumer to get a very simple data a very simple pricing plan, they must be very careful. There is a view, each click will spend money.

To illustrate, we have done studies to measure the download unlimited data plan between the user and the application of wage differentials as-you-go data plan users. It turned out more than ten thousand cases in our study, and available for download for more than seven times the wages of these applications the unlimited plan as-you-go plan, all are the same.

VB: The is the mobile applications market, dependence on the growth of smart phone use? Are there in the future, “dumb” phone?

IL: I think it is stupid the definition of mobile phones and smart phones is the whole problem. What is the definition of smart phones? Even when I talk to business executives, I have not heard the two people to provide the same definition. So, I think it is very artificial conditions, but also for consumers is not important. How consumers can know whether they have enabled mobile phone or smart phone?

The second point is that no matter what the smart phone of today’s measures in three years, each phone will be smart phones. Even today, every one definition, a phone is a smart phone, smart phone, if you mean the ability to check e-mail, add the application’s ability to browse the Internet, color screen, and so on. Today, every match the definition of a mobile phone. However, even by a broader definition, in the three years, all phones would be a smart phone, so the issue is a short life.

Third, when we assess the reasons behind the use of consumer applications, we found that only three things, the real problem. The first is an unlimited data plan. If you have an unlimited data plan, you are a consumer application, regardless of the device. Another big thing is the speed you can start using the application. If it is very easy Sony VGP-BPS8, VGP-BPS8A, VGP-BPl8 Band fast, you use the application. If it is slow, you may never use the application. If you can get a big button, said: “download the application,” Users will immediately enter the application. The third is that you need in order to have a lot of applications is a big color screen. This is the only important thing.

VB: The price of how what?

IL: The most popular applications, such as Facebook applications can be downloaded for free. Of course, if the game costs less people will buy more games, but the application of the price was originally a relatively small consideration.

We are also examining whether there is touch-screen problems. We know that is easier to purchase touch-screen applications, and contact with them, while in the non-touch screen you have to scroll, press the button, click OK, and so on, its much more difficult. However, we found that touch-screen not only makes consumers will be more inclined to consumer applications.

However, if a fair summary of the issue in three years will be completely dissolved.

In VB: For which types of mobile applications will be everywhere in the application procedure, as big as the Internet? What is the same as Google and Facebook? We just moved to a new factor in all forms, or move continue to have a separate space?

IL: I have the answer appears to be a boring, but it is in the observation, the application to steal the Internet mindshare basis. So, when you right-ups, many consumers today to talk about the use of mobile devices continues to Facebook application [] than in the desktop, because it has always existed. I can not specifically point out, Facebook’s numbers, because it would reveal some sensitive information, but when you are in the general category of social applications, we introduce the ordinary consumers to 8 times a day to spend 5 to 10 minutes each. Thus, already today, Facebook applications have a Web site Facebook more than mindshare.

Accordingly, what is the future of popular application procedures, the boring answer is that these will be the already popular Internet services. Such as Facebook and Twitter’s social services will continue to occupy a dominant position. Today, already, this is a 40%, mobile data communications networks, generated by social facts.

Social networks, games, chat, browsing, and appointments will be five categories, will dominate the market. We will have other services, as well as the long tail.

VB: this is not the same, but this location is a different, but the phone has brought GPS vehicle led to a large number of phones, specific development? I think any number of things, from the four corners, and Gowalla service, to remind you where you parked or send your GPS positioning your friends. Location does not drive the mobile experience, making it a desktop than it is now a different experience?

IL: Location is a very interesting addition to the existing model, so I think all of these features will become hot. Of course, there is a navigation services. I think that will be based on phone capability, features, but I do not think any of these services will exceed that have been proven to be the Internet’s most popular services. Perhaps an entirely new phenomenon will appear in the next 10 years, but these phenomena are completely unpredictable. If I can predict them, I’ll do something else.

In the next three to five years to see, I absolutely do not believe that will be a new market-oriented services based on pure mobility features. The dominant consumption will come from services, fundamentally, we know already. Range of services on the Internet is already reflected in the needs of ordinary consumers spectrum.

VB: You have said that 90% of application developers will not be able to become a viable business application development changes. Can you provide information on who is the profile most competitors of any forecast, who is one of the most prominent problems of development? Application market, the sustainability of 100,000 applications?

IL: First, I would say that 90% of the qualified statement. This statement was in July and is reflected in the prevailing market conditions. At that time the ecological system and not large enough to maintain a number of developers.

I think that in the next 10 years will also be a very huge market. I often use the music more, because I think it’s really good. For iPhone users, who consume the classic applications are consuming music. The average today, iPhone users to spend money and time, applications and music, similar to the amount.

I think that in ten years the application of the economies of scale will be similar to today’s music economy, which is great. There are thousands of markets, with millions of songs. When you right application, is striving to become an application generation, also raised a similar amount of work into a song into production. Even if the development is similar: Do you worry about your car started in their garage band, or player development and application of guy talk.

VB: this is an interesting analogy. Young people who become rock stars will become a youth who has a dream, a dream hit the application.

IL: Perhaps more social young people will still dream of being rock stars, but the annoying participants will dream of becoming the next big application developers or the next game.

In today’s economic base, iPhone is no way to hundreds of thousands of major applications will get a good return on investment. Perhaps only 1000 can be turned into big business. However, application development will be multiplied by the resulting economic growth will be in 10 years, tens of thousands of developers will make a significant life.

In VB: Finally, you say, next year will be the phone’s “year.” Can you provide more details about your vision?

IL: I can not talk about specific equipment, but these devices in emerging major handset manufacturers will be very good. This is not just evolution, it is revolution. Why is there such a situation as in 2010, the answer is very simple. Three years ago, every handset manufacturer has been blown away by iPhone, everyone started trying to copy. In the past three years, all the major sectors of the players have been on the phone technology, work, and they have been to Apple’s iPhone will be used for similar investments, because they know that if they do not, they will lose the market. Thus, in 2010, consumers will see huge advances in this technology development results. Each cell phone manufacturers will have an introduction of the same iPhone.